Posts Tagged ‘inflation’SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends — A Decade in FluxIn this SPECIAL EDITION, check out: The State of the Markets: A Decade in Flux 10 years that were anything but boring.. Home Prices: A Much Needed Breather After a historic rise, an equally historic fall. Getting Back on Track: Are We There Yet? Many believe the bottom in housing has come and gone. Are [...] The State of the Markets: A Decade in FluxThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux The books are officially closed on a decade which will be remembered for an historic real estate boom in the United States that busted in spectacular fashion, nearly taking the entire world financial system down with it. Of course, the real [...] Home Prices: A Much Needed BreatherThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Life is always so much clearer in hindsight. The graph below shows the US Median Home Price (blue line, as measured by the 6-month moving average of the Median Price, admittedly as arbitrary a metric as any other) graphed [...] Getting Back on Track: Are We There Yet?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS We wrote back in June of 2008: “The Holy Grail de jour of financial market prognostication is predicting the bottom in housing. It’s a fool’s errand, however.” Identifying the low point in any asset class is an effort best [...] Inflation: What is it Good For?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS At the heart of some of the most contentious debates in the otherwise drab world of macroeconomic theory is that of inflation (yes, there are in fact contentious debates about macroeconomic theory). To wit, economics can’t even agree on [...] Inflation and Home Prices: Is the Romance Over?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS A cursory look at the long term trends for inflation and home prices reveal strikingly similar patterns. Until, that is, right around 2003 (see dotted line below). (click to enlarge image) In the wake of the short recession caused [...] Home Prices vs. Mortgage Rates: Let’s DanceThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS It stands to reason that falling interest rates leads to higher home prices. After all, for every one percent drop in mortgage rates, buyers can afford around 10% more house. Against that backdrop, the chart below makes sense: After [...] Do High Mortgage Rates Kill Home Prices?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Given the widespread expectation for future inflation, and as an extension higher interest rates to combat rising prices, the question above is the most common one we hear from home buyers and real estate investors alike. To try and [...] All Bubbles Burst, EventuallyThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS The belief that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low, for too long, is one which is now nearly universally held. Well, outside the Fed, that is. Here’s a smattering of quotes which show how the view of [...] Historical Macro DataUS Median Home Price 1965-2009 Gray area is “Inflation” period of 1972-1983, 201% total increase in home prices during that 12 year period, or 10.5% annually. (click image to enlarge) Consumer Price Index 1965-2009 Gray area is “Inflation” period of 1972-1983, 147% total increase in CPI during that 12 year period, or 8.5% annually. (click [...] Keepin’ It Real Estate: The Fed Loses the Mortgage-Rate Battle?This post first appeared on Minyanville. Despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, the free market is winning the battle over mortgage rates. Tens of trillions of dollars in support for the financial system can’t change the stark reality: Giving out home loans remains risky business. Borrowers looking to take [...] Mortgage Rates Still Not Allowed to Return to NormalBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. Despite Herculean efforts, the Federal Reserve is losing its battle to keep mortgage rates at all-time lows. As fear that we’re headed for imminent collapse slowly wanes, investors’ appetite for risk is coming back. This renewed confidence has helped buoy stocks, and the major equity indices [...] Inflation vs. Deflation: Endgame ApproachesBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. Of the myriad highbrow economic debates currently raging throughout the world of punditry, academia and government policy, few are as contentious as the one over the future of prices: Inflation vs. Deflation. Indeed, the endgame for this issue is not insignificant, as many believe our economic [...] Falling Rents Signal DeflationBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. In recent months, headlines have been popping up noting that rents – finally – are beginning to follow home prices into the abyss. Since the housing market began to crumble, would-be homeowners were forced to become renters, keeping demand for rental units relatively strong even as home prices [...] |