Posts Tagged ‘home prices’Cirios Trends – March 2011In this month’s Cirios Trends March 2011 Edition: State of the Markets: March 9, 2011 Will expensive oil torpedo real estate? Feature: A Primer on San Francisco Public Schools Making sense of the city’s wacky Lottery system. Redwood City: Best. Climate. Ever. (Also, a nice place to live) Diverse town offers insight into the future [...] Realtors Roll the Dice With HAFAThis post first appeared on Minyanville. The Obama Administration’s latest salvo in the war against foreclosures, Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives, or HAFA, is but a week old and already America’s real estate establishment is trying to cash in. HAFA aims to step in where Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, fails. In other words, when [...] SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends — A Decade in FluxIn this SPECIAL EDITION, check out: The State of the Markets: A Decade in Flux 10 years that were anything but boring.. Home Prices: A Much Needed Breather After a historic rise, an equally historic fall. Getting Back on Track: Are We There Yet? Many believe the bottom in housing has come and gone. Are [...] The State of the Markets: A Decade in FluxThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux The books are officially closed on a decade which will be remembered for an historic real estate boom in the United States that busted in spectacular fashion, nearly taking the entire world financial system down with it. Of course, the real [...] Home Prices: A Much Needed BreatherThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Life is always so much clearer in hindsight. The graph below shows the US Median Home Price (blue line, as measured by the 6-month moving average of the Median Price, admittedly as arbitrary a metric as any other) graphed [...] Getting Back on Track: Are We There Yet?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS We wrote back in June of 2008: “The Holy Grail de jour of financial market prognostication is predicting the bottom in housing. It’s a fool’s errand, however.” Identifying the low point in any asset class is an effort best [...] Recovery: How Long Did it Take Last Time?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS The aforementioned warning about historical analogues notwithstanding, let’s take a look at how the housing market recovered the last time there was a persistent decline in home prices. As an aside, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing [...] Inflation and Home Prices: Is the Romance Over?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS A cursory look at the long term trends for inflation and home prices reveal strikingly similar patterns. Until, that is, right around 2003 (see dotted line below). (click to enlarge image) In the wake of the short recession caused [...] Home Prices vs. Mortgage Rates: Let’s DanceThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS It stands to reason that falling interest rates leads to higher home prices. After all, for every one percent drop in mortgage rates, buyers can afford around 10% more house. Against that backdrop, the chart below makes sense: After [...] Do High Mortgage Rates Kill Home Prices?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Given the widespread expectation for future inflation, and as an extension higher interest rates to combat rising prices, the question above is the most common one we hear from home buyers and real estate investors alike. To try and [...] Housing Perspective: May S&P Case Shiller Home Price IndexThe housing market got another piece of “good” data today, as the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index registered its first month-over-month uptick in almost 3 years, according to Bloomberg. The increase was nominal, to be sure, at a mere 0.5% from the prior month, but it was an increase nonetheless. As can be seen [...] Housing Perspective: June Existing Home SalesLies, damn lies and (NAR) statistics. Indeed. The National Association of Realtors (or NAR) released data today showing that sales of existing homes crept up in June, the 3rd consecutive up month. While sales were a touch lower than they were a year ago, the annualized, seasonally adjusted sale figure was up 3.6% from May. [...] Zip Code Spotlight – San Leandro – 94577This post first appeared in the July edition of Cirios Trends: Getting to the Bottom of the Housing Market This month’s spotlight shines on an oft-forgotten portion of the East Bay, San Leandro. While San Leandro lacks the famous name of an Oakland and the semi-swankitude of a Castro Valley, its central location and amazing [...] Housing Perspective: April Case Shiller Home Price IndexThis morning, the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, which measures prices in 20 US metropolitan regions, registered an 18.1% decline in prices. And for as bad as this sounds, its actually the best reading in 6 months. According to Bloomberg, one of the index’s designers, Yale economist Robert Shiller said he saw “striking improvement in [...] Housing Perspective: May Homebuilder SentimentHousing market optimists picked up another bullish datapoint this morning, as the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo builder confidence index rose to 16 from 14 last month. According to Bloomberg, that’s the highest reading since last September. So what happened the last time builders felt this good about their prospects? Lehman Brothers went belly [...] Housing Perspective: February Case/Shiller Home Price IndexFebruary’s Case/Shiller Home Price Index was released today, showing continued price declines across the country. According to Bloomberg, home prices slid 18.6% from the previous year — a steep drop to be sure, but less severe than January, which saw a record-setting 19% decline. With recent “positive” news on existing home sales, new home sales [...] Housing Perspective: March New Home SalesNew Home Sales in March came in higher than expected, even as prices fell from this month last year. According to Bloomberg, the Commerce Department reported that builders tallied sales last month at an annual pace of 356,000, down just slightly from February. Inventories dropped to the lowest level in 7 years, while prices dipped [...] Zip Code Spotlight: Berkeley — 94703Each month we examine a single zip code, identifying micro-trends within the area to try and figure out how close (or far) that market could be from a bottom. This month we shine the Zip Code Spotlight on 94703, an area smack in the middle of storied Berkeley, CA. The area contains an eclectic mix [...] By The Numbers: Housing InventoryAs the nationwide housing crisis continues to unfold, one of the most important data points to watch is housing inventory. Housing inventory is examined by comparing the total number of listings in a given area to sales pace, resulting in a measurement of months’ supply. This number represents the number of months it would take [...] Doing Your Real Estate Homework: CraigslistCraigslist.com is a tool almost everyone is familiar with, but most people don’t associate it with their home buying search. While Craigslist does have numerous listings of homes for sale in its “real estate for sale” section, we believe the site’s rental data is more valuable for the diligent home buyer. An informed home purchase [...] Housing Perspective: January Pending Home SalesBreaking a trend of rising Pending Home Sales, the index of signed purchase contracts fell in January, down 7.7% from December, according to the National Association of Realtors (or NAR). The drop was more than twice as bad as economists’ expectations — and by “expectations” we mean wild stabs in the dark. Pending Home Sales, [...] Creating Value: Your ValueBy RYAN TAYLOR Looking at real estate from the perspective of an investor, it’s easy to forget that behind each transaction is an intensely emotional decision – often one that is life changing for the buyer. Not only do people want to buy a home to grow their wealth but they also want a place [...] Straight up Statistics: How Random is Your Sample?By AUSTIN NELSON How many times have you read a statistic like this one: “57% of Americans believe that the economy will do X in the next Y years”? Ever wondered how in the heck they can say something like that? Do they poll every American and ask them what they think? The answer, of [...] House of the Week Results: It’s Always Sunny in SunnyvaleUnlike Santa Ana, where last week we learned there is strong demand for attractively priced properties, Sunnyvale has seen sales volume decrease over the past 3 months. This is concerning, particularly as other, distressed areas experience pops in sales activity and the broader economy continues to weaken. Sunnyvale is in the heart of Silicon Valley [...] |