Straight up StatisticsSoMa vs. Nob Hill: Where would you buy? By Andrew Jeffery I had an interesting conversation this morning about relative performance in different San Francisco neighborhoods during and after the housing bubble burst. Conventional wisdom would lead one to believe that SoMa, the fringier and “overdeveloped” part of San Francisco would have performed better than Nob Hill, which is much more established as [...] Riding the Waves at the Beacon Socketsite posted an interesting example of why the Beacon continues to be a dicey building to buy (or own) in. Here is the chronology of unit 802 in 250 King St.: Apr. 2006: Bought new for $906,666 with a 105% LTV loan Nov. 2009: Bought at foreclosure auction for $527,077, cash May 2010: Bought on the open [...] The Bay Area’s Hottest Housing MarketAs a follow up to Greg’s piece on Bay Area Real Estate Trends about velocity over in the East Bay, here is a snapshot of what it looks like out west. I grabbed some data on a few cities in San Mateo and Santa Clara County to examine the same data, months supply in the [...] Bernal Heights – Single Family Home Sales DataIn response to a thread on Bernalwood regarding Bernal Heights real estate, Cirios put together some simple data for single family home sales over the past three years. Monthly data is inherently choppy and seasonal, so we prefer to look at rolling 3-month averages. The table and graphs below help paint part of the picture [...] The State of the Markets – 9/15/2010This post first appeared in the September edition of: Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities In a financial landscape marred with uncertainty, there is one constant, one thing that “everyone” knows: Housing is in trouble. And while the bears certainly have ammunition to support their pessimistic case, history tells us that when everyone [...] Cirios Trends Special Edition: Mid-Year Review – Will Housing Slide Again?In this month’s Cirios Trends Special Edition: Mid-Year Review – Will Housing Slide Again?, check out: The State of the Markets – Will Housing Slide Again? Prices are falling, should you care? Why Are Home Prices Falling Again? The answer may surprise you. Is Housing Policy Working? Running the numbers on foreclosure prevention. Picking Winners [...] Cirios Trends — May 2010In this month’s Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities, check out: The State of the Markets: May 5, 2010 Watching as the world wobbles. Feature: What’s in a CDO, anyway? Complex securities bite Goldman Sachs as the SEC closes in. Around the Bay: Local News Bites Goings on that move markets. Zip Code [...] Cirios Trends — April 2010In this month’s Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities, check out: The State of the Markets: April 5, 2010 Some data show the worst may be over – so are we out of the woods? Feature: HAFA – Double Edge Swords Abound Will the latest housing market fix sink or swim? Did You [...] Talking Charts – Local Market AnalysisThis post first appeared in the April edition of: Cirios Trends: In Search of Real Estate Opportunities. As long time readers of this newsletter know, we at Cirios rail against the concept that “it’s a great time to buy,” irrespective of market condition. There is just too much that goes into the homebuying decision to [...] SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends — A Decade in FluxIn this SPECIAL EDITION, check out: The State of the Markets: A Decade in Flux 10 years that were anything but boring.. Home Prices: A Much Needed Breather After a historic rise, an equally historic fall. Getting Back on Track: Are We There Yet? Many believe the bottom in housing has come and gone. Are [...] The State of the Markets: A Decade in FluxThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux The books are officially closed on a decade which will be remembered for an historic real estate boom in the United States that busted in spectacular fashion, nearly taking the entire world financial system down with it. Of course, the real [...] Home Prices: A Much Needed BreatherThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Life is always so much clearer in hindsight. The graph below shows the US Median Home Price (blue line, as measured by the 6-month moving average of the Median Price, admittedly as arbitrary a metric as any other) graphed [...] Recovery: How Long Did it Take Last Time?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS The aforementioned warning about historical analogues notwithstanding, let’s take a look at how the housing market recovered the last time there was a persistent decline in home prices. As an aside, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing [...] Inflation: What is it Good For?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS At the heart of some of the most contentious debates in the otherwise drab world of macroeconomic theory is that of inflation (yes, there are in fact contentious debates about macroeconomic theory). To wit, economics can’t even agree on [...] Inflation and Home Prices: Is the Romance Over?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS A cursory look at the long term trends for inflation and home prices reveal strikingly similar patterns. Until, that is, right around 2003 (see dotted line below). (click to enlarge image) In the wake of the short recession caused [...] Home Prices vs. Mortgage Rates: Let’s DanceThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS It stands to reason that falling interest rates leads to higher home prices. After all, for every one percent drop in mortgage rates, buyers can afford around 10% more house. Against that backdrop, the chart below makes sense: After [...] Do High Mortgage Rates Kill Home Prices?This post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Given the widespread expectation for future inflation, and as an extension higher interest rates to combat rising prices, the question above is the most common one we hear from home buyers and real estate investors alike. To try and [...] All Bubbles Burst, EventuallyThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS The belief that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low, for too long, is one which is now nearly universally held. Well, outside the Fed, that is. Here’s a smattering of quotes which show how the view of [...] A Tale of Two Markets: Underneath the DataThis post first appeared in the SPECIAL EDITION: Cirios Trends: A Decade in Flux << PREVIOUS Since we just spent the last ten pages laboriously scratching the surface of complex macroeconomic trends with a few over-simplified charts, we will now analyze every single US housing market by looking at sales data in two cities. As [...] Historical Macro DataUS Median Home Price 1965-2009 Gray area is “Inflation” period of 1972-1983, 201% total increase in home prices during that 12 year period, or 10.5% annually. (click image to enlarge) Consumer Price Index 1965-2009 Gray area is “Inflation” period of 1972-1983, 147% total increase in CPI during that 12 year period, or 8.5% annually. (click [...] Are Housing Fundamentals Still Deteriorating?This post first appeared on Minyanville. There’s a good amount of buzz surrounding the Wall Street Journal’s piece on the staggering number of homeowners underwater on their mortgages. This, on the same day the Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted its fourth consecutive month-over-month increase. Mixed signals? Possibly. But in reality, these two seemingly disparate data [...] Price Per Square Foot: Has Redwood City Hit Bottom?One of themes we harp on here at Cirios is how home price trends are becoming increasingly localized as individual real estate markets grope for a bottom. Some areas, particularly the hardest hit by foreclosures, have seen fantastic price declines. Others, mainly the high end, are only recently feeling the ill-effects of job losses and [...] Price per Square Foot: Orinda vs. LafayetteLooking for great schools, rolling hills, big lots and a quick BART ride to the city? Orinda and Lafayette, two of the most desirable towns in the East Bay, have all this and much more. Home prices remain in a downward trend, to be sure, but inherent desirability and established neighborhoods should keep these two [...] Straight Up Statistics – Deconstructing the AverageAs more statistics come out on a daily basis that are supposed to tell us that the recession is over and we’ve hit the bottom, its more important than ever to be aware of the nuances these statistics come along with. Government officials, bankers, retailers and snake oil salesmen alike throw out statistical arguments at [...] |