Archive for December, 2008Straight Up Statistics: The Magic of Seasonal AdjustmentsBy AUSTIN NELSON Have you ever wondered what the heck it means when you read that economic data is “seasonally adjusted?” How can non-seasonally adjusted data show one trend while seasonally adjusted data shows something completely different? Which dataset is the most reliable? The in-depth answer to these questions requires a PhD in statistical analysis. [...] Keepin’ It Real Estate: The Other Side of the Rock-Bottom MortgageBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. It’s wishful thinking that artificially low interest rates alone are enough to rehabilitate the housing market. The mortgage industry has undergone a swift and ruthless downsizing over the past 18 months. While a necessary part of the corrective process, the market is ill-equipped to handle the onslaught of [...] Housing Perspective: November Housing StartsBy AUSTIN NELSON Housing starts in the U.S. fell to their lowest levels since the government started keeping statistics on the subject in 1959. The drop is staggering — almost 20% since October — and is another stark indication of the current state of the U.S. housing industry, not to mention the economy as whole. [...] Limitations of a Home AppraisalBy RYAN TAYLOR What exactly does an appraisal mean? Perception doesn’t always equal reality. The perception is that an appraisal represents the most accurate value of a property. The reality is that it’s a value provided by a licensed professional, given the purpose and functional use of a property on a given day. The key [...] Housing Perspective: December Home Builder SentimentBy RYAN TAYLOR It’s still a lousy time to be selling new homes. The National Association of Home Builders, or NAHB, shared its sentiment index for December, which remained at a record low of 9. The index is based on 426 residential developers nationwide; a reading below 50 reflects negative sentiment. In addition to the [...] Keepin’ It Real Estate: Chinese Investors Smell Blood in CaliforniaBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. Speculators have been flocking to California for centuries. Gold, computers, absurd dot.com start-ups, real estate - if it’s an asset, it’s probably boomed and busted in the Golden State. The bursting of the latest bubble — real estate — is still in progress, as foreclosures push up [...] Housing Perspective: October Pending Home SalesBy AUSTIN NELSON Nationwide pending home sales were down 0.7% in October, according to the National Association Of Realtors (NAR). Pending home sales are those under contract but not yet closed, and the index is viewed as a predictive measure of actual sales that will occur the following month. Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted data show the [...] Fannie, Freddie Knew About Risks, Ignored ThemBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. Unprecedented. Unpredictable. Unparalleled. Extraordinary. These are the adjectives offered by mortgage industry executives defending their relative innocence in the collapse of the housing industry. Conditions, they argue, deteriorated so rapidly and in such unpredictable ways they couldn’t possibly batten down the hatches fast enough. As it [...] Keepin’ It Real Estate: Treasury Tries to Re-Inflate Housing BubbleBy ANDREW JEFFERY This post first appeared on Minyanville. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is hoping he’s found the magic bullet to solve the US housing market’s seemingly never-endless woes. He hasn’t. By throwing around the weight of recently nationalized mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the Treasury Department is considering a plan [...] |